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Friday, August 20, 2010

Australian Political Betting: Labor To Best Liberal By Nose Says Punters, by Greg Tingle - 20th August 2010

Australia approaches D Day for the political election. It's showdown time for PM Julie "Jungle Girl" Gillard VS Tony "The Bruiser" Abbott. Get your budgie smugglers, running shoes, boxing gloves and best Aussie accent ready. Media Man and Gambling911 get you ready to go a full 15 rounds...

Australian Labor will retain government at tomorrow's federal election by about 5 seats, according to punters, but word on the mean streets of 'Sin City' Sydney says its an even match.

But 2 key Sydney electorates are headed back to the Coalition and The Greens (aka Greenies) will win a seat in the House of Representatives!

That’s the ruling of punters on betting giant Betfair, who’ve wagered almost $2.5 million on the overall outcome of tomorrow’s poll, giving Prime Minister Gillard a 67% chance of retaining office at a current price of $1.44. Centrebet odds follow this pattern.

Tony Abbott’s Coalition has been solidly backed in the past 24 hours, but remains the underdog to win at $3.20, offering it just a 33% chance of victory.

While the overall analysis and number crunching is positive for the ALP, punters are convinced that the political career of one Maxine McKew, former ABC TV presenter, is just hours from ending.

"Mad Maxine" (Media Man tag) is the $2.76 outsider to retain her prized seat of Bennelong, out from $1.48 just two weeks ago. Coalition candidate John "The Tennis Ace" Alexander has firmed into $1.50 after being backed at a high price of $2.65 early last month.

The key Western Sydney seat of Lindsay is headed back to the Coalition with Fiona "Surefire" Scott the $1.72 favourite to best Labor’s David Bradbury at $2.10.

The Greens are being tipped to make history in the seat of Melbourne with Adam "Buster" Bandt now the $1.41 favourite to steal that electorate away from Labor at $2.90.

"Punters on Betfair concur with polling data that suggests this will be a closely fought contest, but they are confident Labor’s vote will hold up sufficiently for it to retain office," Betfair’s Mathew "Tipster" Thompson shared.

"This is also likely to be a unique election, with the seat of Lindsay to go the way of losing party for the first time since its inception in 1984.

The Greens were also well placed to win Melbourne from the ALP despite forecasts suggesting Labor will actually pick up seats in Victoria, he offered.

"With close to $2.5 million wagered in Betfair’s election winner market by close to 1200 individual punters, this is a reliable reflection of voter sentiment and is a positive poll for Julia Gillard on the eve of election day," Thompson said.

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If your going to have a bet, please bet your head, not over it, and for God's sake, have fun. Vote early and vote often... just kidding. It is not known who Betfair and Aussie gaming king James Packer will vote for, but we have our suspicions. Let's just hope that the darn internet filter proposal doesn't further hinder Betfair or other Packer (or Media Man) enterprises, or cost any more Australian jobs. Malcolm "No Bull" Turnbull (Liberal, for those not sure), be patient. Insiders still say you will be Australian Prime Minster in 4 years time if you want the job and can last the distance. May the best man (or woman) win.

*Greg Tingle is a special contributor for Gambling911

*Media Man http://www.mediamanint.com is primarily a media, publicity and internet portal development company. They cover a dozen industry sectors including gaming and offer political commentary and analysis.

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